Welcome to a special edition of the Scuttlebutt. I was asked this morning, on Quora, “Why is negotiation considered a better option than military action when there are territorial disputes between countries?”

Well, this is a topic I’ve sounded off on before, and if you’ve been here long enough, you have probably heard “the three most expensive things” piece before. Still it bears repeating, and since when I wind up writing an essay, I like to get as much milage out of that sucker as I can: Here we go.

There are only two things more expensive than winning a war. Expensive not only in money, but in blood, and in time. War may, in most cases drive technology, with eventual spin offs to non military applications, but the time lost on regular research, and the minds lost to the battlefield take years to recover from.

Those two things I mentioned? Well, losing a war is even more expensive than winning one, for all the same reasons, and your country may cease to exist, so you have literally lost it all.

The most expensive thing, though? It’s not fighting a war, when war is inevitable. Take WWII as an example. Hitler’s diaries state that if England and France had intervened militarily when he moved to capture the Sudeten lands, he would have had to back off, he was not ready to face them. Imagine how much bloodshed, destruction, and grief would have been avoided, had Nevil Chamberlin found a pair.

Most people, even people in high position in government, only look at those first two on my list. As a result, they really want to avoid war at all costs. They forget that most expensive option, until war is thrust on them. The truth is that some things are not resolvable via negotiation, negotiation only delays the war, and often leaves the side that is going to be attacked in a weaker position.

Some times that doesn’t matter. Take Israel as the perfect example. They have negotiated and bargained, offered concessions, hell, they gave the entire Gaza strip away, in hopes that that would buy them peace. Instead, it provided people whose only desire in the world is to see Israel wiped off the map and every jew dead, a jumping off spot, and created the attacks of October 7.

In the long run, Hamas never stood a chance, once they pissed Israel off enough. But a lot of innocent people died because Israel is deathly afraid of becoming that which tried to destroy the Jewish people. As a result, they try desperately to avoid a war that they fear will leave them no choice, but to wipe the pretend group of Arabs that the world calls Palestinians, off the face of the earth. (I say pretend group, because no one had ever heard of “Palestinians” until Arafat created the term for those Arabs from the British protectorate who were not willing to integrate, as many of their compatriots did, with “the Jew.”)

Right now, the US is in a similar position with the PRC. War looks inevitable from where I sit, yet we continue to make deals, and try to buy them off, while the PRC continues to upgrade their military.

Now, I may be wrong, the cold war proved that even if war looks inevitable, it is possible to win without firing a shot, Thank you Ronnie Reagan. And the internal pinning that keep the CCP in power are looking a little shaky for a lot of reasons, but the trouble with dictators is that even if it looks like they’re going to lose it all, they often decide to “throw the dice” as Julius said, and try military solutions when the alternative is internal collapse.

Bottom line, if war is inevitable, chose the time when you are strongest compared to the enemy. Be aware of the fact that your enemy will be doing the same. Extremely post war examination, having the ability to see the private minds of both Hitler and Stalin via diaries and private communications, indicates that is what happened with the German attack on their “Allie” the Soviet Union. Both sides knew that they were eventually going to go to war, and both sides were gearing up. Hitler was told that Stalin was amassing forces faster than Germany, which means “the longer you wait, the worse this fight is going to be.” As a result, he kicked the ball, before Stalin could. Truth is, he waited too long, but it was a near run thing.

Yours in Service

William Lehman